The Four Types of Trump Voters

Drawing on surveys, interviews, and group conversations conducted with over 10,000 Trump voters over ten months concluding in early 2026, this study finds four distinct types of Trump voters: MAGA Hardliners, Anti-Woke Conservatives, Mainline Republicans, and the Reluctant Right. 

29% of 2024 Coalition

MAGA Hardliners are the fiery core of Trump’s base — fiercely loyal, deeply religious, and animated by a sense that America is in an existential struggle between good and evil, with God firmly on their side. They tend to be older, less affluent, and less formally educated than other conservatives, but they see themselves as the guardians of a way of life they believe is rapidly disappearing. For them, Trump is not simply a politician but the champion of their cause, someone willing to break with convention to restore what they see as America’s rightful greatness.

Among Trump voters, MAGA Hardliners are the most willing to violate democratic norms to achieve political ends. They are skeptical of mainstream institutions, convinced that traditional sources of information have been compromised, and many believe that a small group of people secretly controls politics, media, and business. This leads them to be generally tolerant of Trump ignoring Supreme Court rulings or amending the Constitution to seek a third term, although a majority still believe Trump should follow the Constitution, even if it means he sometimes can’t get things done. They have a strong sense of community and are among the cohorts most likely to say that most of their friends share their political views. Overall, MAGA Hardliners can be counted on to take Trump’s side in almost every situation.

Comparison between
MAGA Hardliners and the average Trump 2024 voter

• 4 in 5 (74%) Baby Boomers or Gen X
• Below-average educational attainment: 1 in 5 (24%) hold a 4-year college degree or greater (versus 29% average)
• More likely to be Evangelical: 31% identify as born-again (versus 20% average)
• More likely to consider their religion important (87% versus 71% average)

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21% of 2024 Coalition

Well-off and politically engaged, Anti-Woke Conservatives are deeply frustrated by the perceived takeover of our schools, culture, and institutions by the progressive left. They believe American identity is being eroded by lax immigration laws and by DEI programs, and are consistently the most likely among Trump voters to express disagreement or opposition to “wokeness.”

Unlike the rest of Trump’s base, Anti-Woke Conservatives’ connection to Trump is practical rather than spiritual: they see him as a leader who is effective in fighting corrosive cultural forces, and are the least likely among his base to see his presidency as divinely ordained. They generally frown on the idea of Trump violating the Constitution or Supreme Court rulings, though most also believe Trump should do everything in his power within these limits to strike back against the Left. Anti-Woke Conservatives vote regularly, take civic life seriously, and carry a strong sense of duty to the nation. For them, Trump represents a means to restore America to a state they believe was stronger, more secure, and more rooted in common sense. 

Comparison between
Anti-Woke Conservatives and the average Trump 2024 voter

• 3 in 4 (73%) Baby Boomers or Gen X
• 2 in 5 (39%) hold 4-year college degree or greater
• 27% Protestant, 31% atheist, agnostic, or nothing in particular
• Less likely to be Evangelical (11% versus 20% average)
• More likely to be suburban (59% versus 50% average)
• Higher income: 1 in 3 (35%) make more than $100,000 per year (versus 27% average)
• Least likely to say their religious identity is important to them (51% versus 71% average)

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30% of 2024 Coalition

Mainline Republicans are middle-of-the-road conservatives who play by the rules and expect others to do the same. They tend to be more focused on their families and daily lives than on national politics and are less likely than many other Trump voters to have voted in a local election or follow what is going on in public affairs. They are drawn to Trump less for his flair or showmanship than for the way he advances familiar conservative priorities: securing the border, keeping the economy strong, and preserving a sense of cultural stability.

Mainline Republicans’ preference for order makes them uneasy with violations of political norms, which may help explain why they take a negative view toward such events as the storming of the Capitol on January 6th or Trump’s talk of pushing constitutional limits. Yet overall, they see Trump’s leadership as a force for good and believe he is getting it right on issues like immigration. To them, Trump embodies the determination and boldness they believe are necessary for promoting conservative values and addressing the nation’s challenges.

Comparison between
Mainline Republicans and the average Trump 2024 voter

• Most female-heavy group (55%)
• 75% white, but with notable Hispanic representation (13%)
• Mix of Millennials (30%), Gen X (25%), and Baby Boomers (22%)
• Younger: 51% are either Millennials (30%) or Gen Z (21%)
• Mix of religions: 26% Roman Catholic; 30% Protestant
• Lower income: nearly half (43%) make under $50,000 year (versus 36% average)

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20% of 2024 Coalition

The Reluctant Right is the most ambivalent cohort of Trump’s coalition. Many feel disconnected from national politics and believe politicians don’t reflect their concerns. They also value compromise and believe both sides care equally about America. When they do engage with political issues, they often find themselves torn between competing values — for example, balancing compassion with a desire for order on immigration. They also tend to avoid political conversations with friends and family, both because they dislike confrontation and because they often find themselves holding the minority position.

Asked to explain their vote for Trump, members of the Reluctant Right are the most likely among the cohorts to say they simply found him “less bad” than the alternative or were encouraged by a close friend or family member to do so. They are wary of Trump’s divisive rhetoric, say his immigration policies go “too far,” and are strongly opposed to a third Trump term. At the same time, they are concerned about the direction of the country and believe that open borders, crime, and homelessness have pushed the country into crisis. What they want is strong, competent leadership to steer the nation out of its troubles — which is why, more than any other group, they describe Trump not as a traditional politician but as a “CEO running a company.”

Comparison between
the Reluctant Right and the average Trump 2024 voter

• 6 in 10 (59%) are Baby Boomers or Gen X
• 32% Protestant; 29% atheist, agnostic, or have no religion in particular
• Most likely to identify as Independent (35% versus 24% average)
• Least likely to identify as Republican (51% versus 70% average)
• Lower importance being American (86% versus 91% average)

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